Civilization, Past & Present Longman, Inc., 2000.

《古今文明》，朗曼公司，2000年版。

The "Why" of History

The Historian seeks to describe not only what has happened and how it happened but also why society undergoes change. Any search of this kind raises a number of fundamental questions: the impact of long-term geographical, economic, and social forces; the role of the individual; the power of the group in the extent to which events are unique or，conversely, can fit into patterns; and the problem of progress in human affairs. The answers vary with different philosophical views of the universe and human role therein. 

历史的“为什么”

历史学家不仅试图描写发生了什么，它是如何发生的，而且还要说明为什么社会经历了变化。任何这类的探究便提出了不少根本性的问题：地理的、经济的和社会力量的长期影响；个人的作用；在独一无二的事件中，或从另一方面看，在可以归为某种模式的事件中，群体力量产生影响的程度；人类事务进步中的问题。由于对宇宙及其中人类作用的哲学观点不尽相同，答案也是多种多样的。

People who hold the teleological view see in history the guidance of a Divine Will, directing human destinies according to a cosmic purpose. Other thinkers have exalted the role of individuals in the historical process, contending that major figures chiefly determined the course of human events. Opponents of this thesis argue that history is determined by "forces" and "law" and by the actions of entire societies. Sociologists approach history primarily by analyzing the origins, institutions, and functions of groups. Economists tend to look at the historical record from the standpoint of group action and especially the impact of economic forces.

持目的论观点的人在历史中看到的是神意的引导，是它根据宇宙的目的指导着人类的命运。其他思想家看重个人在历史过程中的作用，声称主要是重要人物决定了人类事件的历程。这一命题的反对者则声称：历史是由“力量”“规律”和所有群体的“行动”决定的。社会学家主要通过对群体的起源、制度和功能的分析来解释历史。经济学家乐于用群体行动、特别是经济力量影响的观点来观察历史记录。

To Karl Marx irresistible economic forces governed human beings and determined the trend of events. Marx contended that the shift from one economic stage to another---such as the shift from feudalism to capitalism--is attained by upheavals, or revolutions, which occur because the class controlling the methods of production eventually resists further progress in order to maintain its vested interests.

对卡尔·马克思来说，不可抗拒的经济力量主宰着人类并决定着历史事件的趋向。马克思声称：从一个经济阶段到另一个阶段的转化，例如从封建主义到资本主义的转变，是通过剧变、或曰革命达到的。之所以发生剧变和革命，是因为控制生产方式的阶级为维护自己的既得利益，终究要阻止进一步的发展。

Numerous other attempts have been made to explain social process according to a set of a principles. Writing at the time of World War I, the German Oswald Spengler maintained that civilizations were like organisms; each grow with the "superb aimlessness" of a flower and passed through a cycle of spring, summer , autumn, and winter. Charles Darwin's evolutionary hypothesis made a strong impact on nineteenth-century thought and gave rise to the concept that the principle of "survival of the fittest"must also apply to human societies. This line of thought--known as social Darwinism--raises social and ethical questions of major importance.

在根据一套原则解释社会过程时，人们尝试了很多其他办法。德国人奥斯瓦德·斯宾格勒在第一次世界大战期间著述时，坚持主张：诸文明就像有机体，都在花的“超级的无目的”中生长，并且经过春、夏、秋、冬的循环。查理·达尔文的进化论假设对19世纪的思想产生了强烈影响，促成一个观念的兴起--“适者生存”的原则也必须运用于人类社会。这个被称为社会达尔文主义的思想体系，引发了相当重要的社会问题和伦理问题。

Does history obey impersonal laws and forces so that its course is inevitable? Or , at the other extreme, since every event is a unique act, is history simply the record of unforeseen and unrelated episodes? Can this apparent dilemma be avoided? We believe it can. Although all events are, in various respects, unique, they also contain elements that invite comparison. The comparative approach permits us to seek relationship between historical phenomena and to group them into movements or patterns orcivilizations. We eschew any "theory"of history, preferring to see merit in a number of basic concepts. These include the effects of physical environment on social organization and institutions; the roles played by economic, political, and religious factors; and the individual impact exerted by men and women occupying key positions in various societies.

历史是否遵循着客观规律和力量，因而它的发展轨迹是不可避免的？或走到另一极端，既然每一事件都是独特的一幕，历史就干脆是无法预见和彼此毫不相干的独立事件的记录？能否避免这一明显的两难困境？我们相信能够。虽然在不同方面，所有事件都是独一无二的，它们仍然包含着可资比较的因素。对比方法使我们得以在许多历史现象间寻找关系，并把它们归类为运动、模式或文明。我们避开任何历史“理论”，宁愿在众多概念中发现有价值的东西。这些概念包括：物质环境对社会组织和制度的影响；经济、政治和宗教因素发挥的作用；不同社会中占据关键位置的男女所施加的个人影响。